Hong Kong’s kindergartens are bracing for a historic decline in enrolments next year, with numbers expected to hit an all-time low following a sharp drop in birth rates in 2022. The current school term has already seen at least 18 preschools shut their doors, according to a sector representative.
Felix Yan Ho-on, chairman of the Hong Kong Early Childhood Educators Association, forecasts that up to 30 more kindergartens may close or cut teaching staff in the upcoming school year due to reduced government subsidies linked to falling enrolments.
Yan noted that all districts are experiencing low enrolments, a trend that is likely to worsen due to the record-low number of births in 2022. That year, Hong Kong saw just 32,500 newborns, the fewest since records began in 1960. The figure slightly increased to 33,200 in 2023, still among the lowest on record.
These figures suggest that the preschool sector will face unprecedentedly low applications in the next two years, as children born in 2022 reach K1 in September 2025. Yan predicted that if around 20 preschools close this year, up to 30 could shut down in the following year.
Some kindergartens may also be forced to reduce their staff. Yan explained, “Since subsidies are based on student numbers, fewer students mean we might need to lay off teaching staff.”
As of September 2023, Hong Kong had 1,009 kindergartens, a decrease from 1,026 the previous year. Of these, 73 percent are local institutions receiving government subsidies, 13 percent are local and privately funded, and 14 percent are non-local private preschools.
The Education Bureau reported that 18 kindergartens ceased operations between September 2023 and June 2024, including one that merged with other schools. However, seven new kindergartens were registered, and three more are seeking registration.
The sector is pinning hopes on a possible baby boom, spurred by the government’s unprecedented HK$20,000 cash incentive for newborns and the expected increase in births during the Year of the Dragon, which began on February 10 this year. Previous Dragon years, such as 2000 and 2012, saw higher birth rates in the city.
According to the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, there was an 8 percent increase in registered births in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
Yan also mentioned that low birth rates have already impacted institutions offering non-compulsory “pre-nursery” classes for two-year-olds. Larger organizations may manage to redeploy redundant teachers, but smaller preschools might face more significant challenges, including high rental costs.
Last month, the Education Bureau announced six new kindergarten premises available for non-profit kindergartens, including two in North District and one each in Kwun Tong, Yuen Long, Sha Tin, and Tung Chung. Applications for these new premises are due by September 19.
“Non-profit kindergartens with high rental costs, poor facilities, or excess capacity in their area are encouraged to apply,” said the bureau. Yan expects these new premises will be in high demand, noting that some are located near the border and could potentially serve students from across the border.